Note to the editor: The names listed below are NFL players drafted in nearly every Yahoo Fantasy series. That said, this column is not an endorsement to bench them in Week 3. You are in charge of your roster; Each series is a different size and shape. What we are trying to explain is that expectations should be lowered this week compared to normal for some of the best football. Aside from examining this week’s games, this could also serve as a reminder not to overreact if one of your stars disappoints in Week 3.
Aaron Rodgers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The back-to-back MVP winner lost fantasy value through no fault of his own. Returns the Alan Lazard some help, but this is a limited Green Bay offense that operates through their running backs. Rodgers wasn’t a top-25 fantasy QB after two games with his new receiving corps, even on the back end Justin Fields, who attempted fewer passes than Cooper Kupp targeted!
Even with Akiem Hicks out for Tampa Bay, Rodgers has another bad matchup for fantasy purposes this week against an elite Bucs defense that allows the lowest EPA/pass (-0.45) in the league. Even worse, the Buccaneers are decimated on offense (incl Mike Evans out suspended) and yes playing at a sluggish paceso expect them continue to run heavily in the first place. In a different way, the over/under in this game opened at 48.5 points and has dropped to 42, which is a dramatic line move without weather reasons. Don’t expect top-15 QB numbers from Rodgers during this defensive battle. Tagovailoa’s ax, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota All are great fantasy options in Week 3.
[Play in Yahoo’s Week 3 $300K Sunday Baller DFS contest]
Javonte Williams vs San Francisco 49ers
Williams has looked impressive this season and is set for some better results at the finish line, but he has a few obstacles working against him on Sunday night. The 49ers have surrendered an NFL-low 2.6 YPC to open the year (hello there Talanoa Hufunga) and have been one of the stingiest defenses against fantasy backs since the start of last season. Additionally, the teammate has the same number of carries as Williams Melvin Gordonas he continues to give plenty of work (although it might have been expected Jerry Jews resulting in more targets). Finally, Williams A young coaching staff must be overcome that there is a comical number of errors to open the year. There’s no way you’re benching Williams in fantasy leagues because of the horrendous RB landscape, but it’s safer to expect more RB2-type production than his top 10 ECR projects.
Darnell Mooney vs Texas Texas
Mooney’s expert consensus is the WR36 this week, suggesting he’s due for fantasy lineups despite still having five receiving yards over two games. The bad weather didn’t help Week 1, though Justin Fields 33rd in pass attempts in a league with 32 teams.
Mooney averaged 11 targets and 78.4 receiving yards with Andy Dalton and Nick Foles last season but had just six targets and 50.6 yards in 10 games with Fields, and those cracks have only gotten (much) worse in 2022 with a new coaching staff. There’s nowhere to go but up, but it’s as rough as it gets playing in Chicago’s offense leads the NFL in 3-and-out% and yes completed (15) almost half as many passes as the next lowest team i the run-heavy system in football.
If that wasn’t enough, Mooney has run 56% of his routes from the slot this season; Houston slot corner King of Desmond he allowed the lowest target/route rate (5% snapping) in the NFL and the third fewest fantasy points this year. Mooney looks closer to falling than he does to a fantasy starter right now.
Travis Kelce ($33) @ Indianapolis Colts
Kelce is off to a strong start this season, but the DFS is phased out at this salary. Mark Andrews that they had a 40% airfield share in Week 2 compared to 26% for Kelcewho are five years older and receiving aimed at a much lower rate but he has a 21% higher salary in the DFS. A desperate 0-2 Colts team wouldn’t be bothered by horror, but this version of Matt Ryan would be surprised. Look elsewhere when setting your DFS lines this week.