Bad news, Gareth – Uruguay are more likely to lift the World Cup

Bad news, England fans… the prediction says Brazil have won the World Cup with England only 10th seed

Brazil will win the World Cup after being knocked out by England in the quarter-finals in Qatar, according to a leading analysis of the competition’s chances.

Gareth Southgate’s side’s poor results at Euro 2020 have seen England drop from sixth to 13th in the report’s rankings, where they have no less chance of winning the World Cup than Uruguay.

Gracenote Nielsen, which forecasts glory statistics for the Lionesses’ victories over the summer, says its latest modeling shows a sixth title for Brazil.

The predictor will continue to be updated as the competition kicks off this Sunday, but, as it stands, the analysis is on Wales in the group stages.

Iran, rather than Wales or the USA, will qualify with England for the last 16, according to the analysis. England are most likely to win the group, and are then tipped to face a last-16 clash against 18th-placed Ecuador. The statistics would then suggest that England would retire in the quarter-finals, possibly against France.

Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote Nielsen, told Telegraph Sport: “England’s results in 2022 mean they have dropped from sixth in our world ranking at the end of last year to 13th now. This means they have a chance to win this. the World Cup has gone down a lot this year and they are not one of the favorites to win this year.”

Gracenote said it uses “extensive simulations, to assess the chances of each team reaching different stages of the competition”. The forecasts will be updated daily during the tournament but, as it stands, Brazil have a 20 percent chance of lifting the trophy after losing just three times in 50 games since World Cup 2018. There is a 16 chance percent by Argentina to become world champions for the first time since 1986.

Although the teams would meet in the semifinals if both won their respective groups, Gracenote simulations predict that the teams will meet in the final.

Spain and the Netherlands are the leading contenders in Europe this year, with both having a seven percent chance of lifting the trophy. Belgium has a 6 percent chance, France a 5 percent chance, and England at 3 percent.

Gracenote, which first developed its proprietary football rankings in 2002, predicts Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany , Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, Iran and Mexico the last 16.

Gleave added: “Based on their dominance in international football since the last World Cup, Gracenote projects Brazil and Argentina to continue to outperform rivals in the upcoming tournament. No other team has been as consistent as the last four years with the two South American giants and this consistency means there is a good chance one of them will prevail in front of a global fan base.”

In contrast to Gracenote’s calculations, England were last week deemed to have the best hopes of winning the World Cup in a calculation based on the collective insurable value of the players.

Using the same Lloyd’s model that correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018, England came out ahead in ranking metrics including wages, sponsorships, age and position on the pitch.

England’s Jude Bellingham has been rated as the most insurable player at the Fifa World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Brazil’s Vinicius Junior.

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