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4for4’s answer to skewed statistics is schedule-adjusted fantasy points, or aFPA. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an “apples to apples” fashion. As the season progresses, the details will change. When we reach Week 4 the data will give us an initial data set to work with, and at Week 12 the data will be a rolling 10 week series.
Until Week 4, this weekly article will focus on the best plays before AFPA takes shape. We take a look at the best matchups for Week 3.
Goff looked impressive with 256 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 2. The Lions go on the road for the first time this season and take on a Vikings defense that showed more of who they are in Week 2 than Week 1. Minnesota allowed 496 total yards to the Eagles Week 2 compared to 371 Week 1. Aaron Rodgers is a better QB than Goff, but Goff and his offensive linemates are clearly performing more efficiently. Give me that competently coached offense against a defense that played up to match their division rival, only to fall to what appears to be an elite offense. Detroit has a chance to run the ball with D’Andre Swift and let Goff cook with Amon-Ra St. Brown and a strong supporting cast. The Lions have already attempted 77 passes and will likely go for 30-plus as their defense hopes to slow down Justin Jefferson.
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Despite the Week 2 loss, the Houston Texans used Dameon Pierce more and nearly upset the Broncos in Denver. Pierce played on less than 29% of the snaps Week 1 and saw work on 62% of the plays Week 2. Week 3 looks like a great week for Pierce (and maybe Rex Burkhead, too) against the Bears . Chicago has been bludgeoned on the ground in two games, allowing 176 and 203 yards for the 49ers and Packers. Pierce also gets to play a defense he’s familiar with, practicing against Lovie Smith’s Cover 2 defense. Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams worked with Smith in Tampa Bay and runs parts of that same scheme.
Sometimes it’s as simple as enjoying talent. Despite being listed as the New York Jets’ WR4 on their first depth chart, Wilson forced his way onto the field. Even if he was considered the fourth option in Week 3, the Jets have run 25% (10) of their plays in “10 personnel” (four WRs, one RB) this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Jets pass out of “11 personnel” at one of the lower rates in the league, but it’s safe to say Wilson will be playing more despite what the team’s website says about his place on the depth chart.
There are positives and negatives to the Steelers’ running attack, and Freiermuth has been on the positive end through two games. He is 9/97/1 on 17 targets and gets a Browns defense that will be cut and already allowed tight ends to accumulate fantasy points. The ghost of Ian Thomas finished Week 1 with his most fantasy points since Week 4 of the 2020 season, while Tyler Conklin saw nine targets and reached double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in Week 2. Freiermuth played 85% of snaps and will. continue to get looks from Mitch Trubisky as long as he’s the starter and doesn’t make bad decisions on running plays.
Despite the injury woes on offense, the Cowboys defense is doing its job and allowing Dallas to stay afloat. The defense is in the top 10 in yards allowed, yards per game allowed, yards per completion allowed, sacks and points per game. Daniel Jones is an easy target in fantasy. He has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game and the ball is in more than enough danger (one INT, one fumble). Jones has also been sacked eight times in two games, the same number of sacks as the Cowboys. If the Cowboys shut down Saquon Barkley the same way the Carolina Panthers did in Week 2, Dallas will be able to win against a division opponent.
[Week 3 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]
Derek Carr @ Titans
Bears backfield vs. Texas
Tyler Lockett vs Falcons
Jakobi Meyers vs. Ravens
Chris Olave @ Panthers
Nico Collins @ Bears
Chargers defense vs. Jaguars
Defensive leaders @ Colts
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
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Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the past ten years. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff likes to run (build it), and he does nothing after that.