We’re rooting for the Jets for an unusual Week 11 teaser

If you played Wong’s NFL teaser in Week 10, you hit everything. All six picks listed in last week’s piece came through, restoring faith to teaser bettors. This week could draw more difficulty and less interesting options on the board.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you’re betting on NFL teasers to keep risk under control.

  • Stick to six point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you place, the greater the risk).

  • Focus on games with lower numbers (the more points expected, the more variance there will be).

  • Tease through the prime numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all winning strategies).

Current Week 11 teaser leg picks

Bills -2 vs. Browns, 42

49ers -2 vs. Cardinal, 43.5 (Mexico City)

Vikings +7.5 vs Cowboy, 47.5

Raiders +8.5 at Broncos, 41

Avoid teaser legs

Those are the ‘obvious’ ones for me, Buffalo and San Francisco. A massive snowstorm is expected to hit Buffalo, which could affect the contest against the Browns. The total opened at 46 before dropping to the current line of 42 as a result of the impending weather conditions. There is even some talk about possibly moving the location of the game in case the storm is too drastic. I don’t like to guess who plays better in difficult conditions so it’s a pass for me.

San Francisco has fallen on the road this season with three of its four losses coming on the road. The Cardinals may or may not be without quarterback Kyler Murray. However, backup Colt McCoy should not be forgotten. Arizona is 3-1 with McCoy under center, including a 31-17 win over the 49ers last season. The added feature of this game being played in Mexico City may create more volatility.

Uncommon teaser legs to consider

After the traditional teaser Wong uses options that cross through the key numbers of three and seven. This week, there are several 3-point spread options that could be considered for a teaser leg. It is more valuable in the long term to get a spread at +3 or better as a single bet rather than being tied to a teaser because of the volatility of picking two games correctly for the winner. However, since there are several 3-point areas, these could be considered for the sake of having additional options available, bearing in mind the additional risk involved. These uncommon options are:

Bears +9 at Falcons, 49.5

Jet +9 at Patriots, 38.5

Rams +9 at Saints, 39

Lions +9 at Giants, 45

Texas +9 vs. Commanders, 40.5

Week 11 NFL teaser to bet: Jets +9 and Vikings +7.5

New York and New England both have strong defenses, 7th and 13th in total defense respectively. The offense will be key; which team is least likely to create mistakes through turnovers? Normally, I’m all about Jets quarterback Zach Wilson fading and yes, the news is that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick feasts on young quarterbacks. However, the Jets defense may be better than the Patriots and right now, Mac Jones may be the less productive quarterback between the two.

The Jets are 4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jets defense is allowing 27% of the league’s passing plays to convert to a first down or down. In the last five games, the Jets defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in four, including a 20-17 win over the Bills. Maybe we’ll see improvements from Wilson and by improvements I don’t mean any turnovers. Against one of the best defenses he’s faced in the Bills, Wilson threw zero interceptions while completing a season-best 72% of his passes. Jones, on the other hand, has been sacked 10 times in his last two games after being benched as Bailey Zappe’s backup three games ago. Right now, the Jets offer more stability.

The Vikings are finding ways to win games. Coming off of back-to-back road games, Minnesota returns home to face one of the most punishing teams in the league. The Cowboys are 28th in penalties, averaging eight penalties per game on the road and six at home. That lack of focus could come into play against a Vikings offense that ranks second in the NFL in scoring fourth quarter points. The higher point total adds to volatility but Minnesota has offensive players that could really test the Dallas defense with WR Justin Jefferson and RB Dalvin Cook.

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